
An article published online in the National Journal seems to think that the race for the Presidential Office is all but sealed up at this point in time. They point to six reasons why McCain will not succeed in his bid for the White House.
1. No candidate behind this far in the polls has surmounted a comeback, ever.
2. Early voting has brought in droves of people and "the more votes are cast early, the more voters are out of the pool for McCain."
3. The surge of Democratic party registrations in those states that require party affiliations will favor Obama.
4. Money. Obama is outspending McCain in advertising by margins of 3- and 4-1 and is gearing his dollars towards positive advertisements.
5. The "Bradley effect" hasn't happened in at least 15 years and the high voter turnout among African-Americans could offset it anyway.
6. "Obama is now leading in every state that Al Gore and John Kerry both won, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and he is ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, the three states that went once but not twice for Democrats in 2000 and 2004. He is also ahead in Florida, Colorado, and Virginia. If that weren't enough (and it is), he's running basically even in Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio, and even threatening in Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia."
The only thing that could possibly help McCain at this point in time is a deus ex machina, an unforeseen cataclysmic event that shifts the trajectory of this election. The stress of the election is showing in McCain's demeanor. McCain gave a speech in Pennsylvania in which he essentially agreed that Western Pennsylvania was racist. This of course is not the truth, but the mistake by McCain shows how tired he must be.
McCain has reportedly received an endorsement from al Qaeda. The endorsement, as the McCain camp states, is an attempt at reverse psychology, an attempt to sway voters in the U.S. to not vote for McCain. There may be a legitimate reason why al Qaeda would not want McCain in office, (his military record and accountability,) but with the data provided in the National Journal's article, it will be difficult for that to happen, with or without the endorsement.
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